Eid Mubarak from Peninsula Real Estate
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How far have the UAE and KSA progressed towards fiscal sustainability?
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Year-to-date, a barrel of Brent crude oil has sold for, on average, $61.55; and the current price is hovering just below $70 a barrel. If oil prices stay in the $60s range for the rest of 2021, the UAE's fiscal accounts at a general government level (federal + Abu Dhabi + Dubai + northern Emirates) are set to break even this year. Put another way, the deficit of around 7% of GDP in 2020 will shrink to zero in 2021. Saudi's fiscal breakeven oil price (according to the IMF) is $65.7 a barrel, so a deficit of under 5% of GDP looks likely: still a huge turnaround from around 11% in 2020.
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Since the end of the oil bull market in mid-2014, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have made huge strides to cut costs and broaden the government revenue base in order to put their respective fiscal accounts on a long-term, sustainable footing. While this may have taken a toll on domestic economic growth, it is important for long-term growth prospects.
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How has Covid affected Government fiscal balances in the UAE, KSA, UK and US?
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Every government in the world has seen a deterioration of its fiscal position as a result of Covid-19; whether through falling revenue or rising costs (to offset the economic damage). In the Gulf, deficits have predominantly been an outcome of falling oil and gas revenue; in the US and UK, predominantly an effect of increased spending. In 2020, the fiscal deficit, expressed as a percent of GDP, was 17% in the UK, 16% in the US, 11% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the UAE.
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While fiscal deficits are forecast to narrow in 2021; the IMF is expecting deficits in the Gulf to return to pre-Covid levels; an outcome not expected in the US and the UK. This reflects how higher oil prices are helping government revenue in the UAE and KSA to bounce back to 2019 levels; while government spending in the US and UK, to support the economy, will continue to be elevated throughout much of 2021.
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How has Covid affected Government revenue in the UAE, KSA, UK and US?
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Covid has had an enormous economic impact on the world; and there is no country that has escaped unscathed. Government finances have also been seriously affected, in some cases because of dramatic increases in spending, in other cases, because revenues have fallen significantly.
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In the UAE and Saudi Arabia, government revenue fell as a result of the decline in oil prices, which still accounts for the majority of government revenues in both countries. In the UK and US, while government revenue fell in 2020 versus 2019, by 5% and 1% respectively, revenues held up much better than might have been expected. Many companies continued to post large profits, and unemployment was contained. Higher earners, who provide the vast majority of income tax receipts, were able to keep working from home.
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How has Covid affected Government spending in the UAE, KSA, UK and US?
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While Covid has presented every country around the world with fiscal challenges, these challenges have not necessarily been the same. Some countries have witnessed large declines in government revenue, others have increased spending, often in dramatic fashion.
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In 2020, the US and UK led the way in increasing spending in response to Covid. In the US, this involved sending checks to citizens; in the UK this involved providing support to businesses to keep people employed. Either way, spending increased by over 25% in both countries. In the UAE and Saudi Arabia however, with revenues declining due to lower oil price, both governments kept tight control over spending. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to show their commitment to ensuring long term fiscal sustainability.
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What makes the UAE ideal for eCommerce growth?
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The penetration of eCommerce in the UAE is currently low, compared to other rich nations. According to data published by VISA, eCommerce accounts for 4% of wholesale and retail sales of goods and services in the UAE versus 16% in the UK, and 12% in the US.
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However, there is every reason to assume that penetration will grow hugely over the coming years. Both internet and smartphone penetration in the UAE are very high by international standards, at 91% and 66% respectively. This is on par with the US, where internet penetration is 95% and smartphone penetration is 69%; and much higher than in Saudi Arabia, where penetration is 73% and 62% respectively.
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How does online shopping in the UAE compare to more mature markets?
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Online retail spending habits in the UAE differ significantly from those in 'mature' markets, such as the US, UK and the EU, where online shopping is more established, according to survey work undertaken in Q1 2020 by Visa.
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For instance, the penetration of apparel and accessories sales is 27 percentage points less in the UAE than in mature markets. This may reflect the comparative difficult of returning unwanted goods in the UAE. It may also reflect a deeply embedded shopping mall culture in the Gulf.
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Penetration rates are comparatively higher in the UAE for the sale of airline tickets (+21 percentage points), telecoms/utilities services (+ 25 percentage points) and other retail goods (+25 percentage points).
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How advanced is e-commerce in the UAE?
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E-commerce penetration in the UAE continues to lag more 'mature' markets, such as the UK, US and France. According to a survey conducted by Visa in early 2020, e-commerce accounted for 4% of total wholesale and retail spending on goods and services. The equivalent number in the UK is 16%, in the US 12%, and in France 11%.
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The gap between the UAE and mature markets is even greater in the retail segment: according to Visa, online spending accounted for 14% of sales in the UAE compared to 39% in mature markets. In this regard, Covid-19 is likely to have a huge impact, accelerating e-commerce penetration rates dramatically.
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